How things go
The situation is far from rosy. Although the IEA suspects that CO2 emissions due to fossil fuel use will now cap (while they grew by 1% last year), that presumption provides zero predictive validity as to how radiation forcing will develop. Because?
- They themselves note that any reduction gains from renewables so far have been immediately negated by volume increases in aviation, shipping, automobile traffic, armies, and internet.
- They rely on calculated emissions, while the past has proven that they are missing a lot of emissions on their radar such as:
- subterranean coal and peat fires;
- fugitive emissions (e.g. natural gas flaring at gas and oil production facilities);
- forest fires, free waste burning, and directed clean burning (350,000 acres treated with prescribed fire annually in US; in Africa and India and Indonesia this is much and much higher because flat burning is part of daily practice there).
- Their calculated CO2 emissions from fossil may not be growing that fast for a while, but methane and nitrogen oxide are rising fast, plus there are major simultaneous uncertainties at play around the effects of warmer seas (and thus their CO2 intake capacity), cloud cover (e.g. water vapor increase due to heat islands), contrails, and the ozone layer.
This way of explaining what is going on by the IEA, like that of the IPCC and other advisory and research bodies run by the well-to-do class in rich countries, falls into the category of "gentle wishful thinking" with which we have been led towards the ravine for 30 years now. Don't panic, just keep consuming, driving , and flying; this is going to be all right! That is the message behind it. And their desire!! Because all their capital is in all those emitting production and transport processes, and all those appliances and devices have to last at least another 10 years and make more money.
Fortunately there is a growing minority of people who don't have their eyes in the pockets, and are keeping a watchful eye on what really matters. Namely, the annual increase in C02 concentration in the atmosphere. Which increased over the past 30 years from 1 ppm to 2.5 ppm per year. And that annual increase does not budge!!!!!!
Rahmstorf S.: "die Emissionen müssen jetzt in einen steilen Sinkflug übergehen und bis 2030 halbiert werden. Und bis jetzt sinken sie ja nicht mal!"
In short: All expansion decisions under the banner of green growth get more and more blood on their hands, and can be booked as criminal (see also the argumentation of this lawyer) . Especially where they involve activities we can completely do without for the survival of humanity.